Here is the text of a Letter To The Editor that I just sent to The Des Moines Register:
On Friday, December 4th, you started your daily COVID-19 report with, “The state added another 70 deaths to the tally of people who died with COVID-19 in the last 24 hours, the largest one-day increase since the pandemic arrived in the state.” Later in the article, you clarified that of the 70 deaths “reported”, 61 actually died in November, eight died in October, and one died on August 26th. Your introductory sentence was at best poorly written, and at worst intentionally misleading. It does appear clear that we have recently been seeing significant increases in the spread of the virus and deaths from the virus, but you lose credibility when you make such misleading statements.
Here is a link to the article:
Today, The Des Moines Sunday Register reported that the bids of the insurance companies that were chosen to manage Iowa’s Medicaid program contained misleading and unverifiable data. (See link below.)
One example you cited was from UnitedHealthcare’s bid, where they stated that their Kansas affiliate reduced premature births by 23 percent from 2013 to 2014. Although it is possible that the efforts by UnitedHealthcare caused this result, it is also possible that the result were caused by random fluctuation.
If you measure 100 health indicators, and the results follow a statistically normal distribution, then a few of the indicators will show significant improvement and a few will show significant worsening, even though there is no real change in long term trends.
It’s just like if you asked 100 investors to each pick a group of stocks by throwing darts at a stock listing. A few would make amazing gains and a few would suffer tremendous losses – none of which could be attributed to the ability of the investor.
In the bids by the insurance companies, all they had to do was “cherry pick” the best statistics after the fact to make themselves look good. So, while the statistics my be true, they are clearly misleading.